In May 2024, the Social Research Foundation conducted an extensive survey to analyse shifts in voter preferences among individuals who voted for the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the 2019 South African general election. The survey focused on the provinces of Gauteng, Western Cape, and Northern Cape, sampling 5,343 registered voters to ensure demographic and geographical representation. This comprehensive study revealed significant trends and changes in voter behaviour, offering crucial insights into the evolving political landscape and voter sentiments in these key provinces.

The findings of the survey indicated notable shifts in voter preferences across the three provinces. In Gauteng, the DA retained a dominant position with 74% of the vote share among former DA voters. However, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) emerged as a significant contender, securing 15% of the vote, while GOOD and the African National Congress (ANC) garnered 2% and 5%, respectively. In the Western Cape, the DA’s dominance was slightly diminished, with 67% of the vote share, while the PA captured 24%, GOOD 4%, and other parties 5%. The Northern Cape exhibited a more pronounced shift, with the DA receiving 55% of the vote, the PA 30%, and other parties 15%.

Several critical factors contributed to these changes in voter preferences. One of the primary reasons was the soaring crime rates in areas under DA influence. Voters expressed growing dissatisfaction with the DA’s inability to effectively address crime, which has become a significant issue in many regions. According to a report by Vanguard, the DA’s promises to curb crime have not been matched by reality, leading to frustration and disillusionment among the electorate. The failure to provide a safe and secure environment has driven many former DA voters to seek alternatives, such as the PA, which has positioned itself as a strong advocate for law and order.

Neglect of townships and inadequate service delivery also played a pivotal role in the shifting voter landscape. Townships such as Hammanskraal have suffered from poor water supply and overall neglect, which has powered voter frustration. A report by Daily News highlighted the grievances of Hammanskraal residents, who have been struggling with inadequate water supply and poor service delivery. The DA’s failure to address these basic needs has significantly eroded its support base in these areas, with many voters feeling neglected and disregarded.


Abuse of power by the police force further exacerbated voter discontent. Instances of police misconduct and brutality in DA-controlled areas have eroded trust in the DA’s governance. Reports of police abuse have been widespread, with Daily News detailing numerous incidents of police misconduct in areas under DA control. The electorate’s growing distrust in the police force, coupled with perceived governmental inaction, has led many voters to reconsider their support for the DA.

Educational failures have also been a critical issue influencing voter preferences. The DA’s handling of educational policies has been marred by controversy and perceived inefficiencies. According to Zoom South Africa, the DA’s education policies have been a source of contention, with many voters feeling that the party has failed to deliver on its promises. The resulting disillusionment with the DA’s educational agenda has driven voters to seek alternatives that they believe can better address their concerns.

The survey’s findings highlight the complex interplay of factors influencing voter behaviour. While the DA still holds a significant share of the vote in the surveyed provinces, the emergence of the PA and other parties indicates a growing desire for change among the electorate. The dissatisfaction with crime rates, service delivery failures, police misconduct, and educational issues underscores the electorate’s demand for effective and responsive governance.

Understanding these trends is crucial for political analysts and stakeholders as they navigate the evolving political landscape in Gauteng, Western Cape, and Northern Cape. The shifts in voter preferences reflect a broader sentiment of discontent and a desire for change, which political parties must address if they are to maintain or expand their support bases. The DA faces significant challenges in retaining its voter base amid growing competition and increasing voter dissatisfaction.

In conclusion, the Social Research Foundation’s survey provides valuable insights into the changing voter preferences among former DA voters in key South African provinces. The data highlights the impact of crime rates, service delivery failures, police misconduct, and educational issues on voter sentiment. As the political landscape continues to evolve, understanding these trends will be crucial for political parties and stakeholders aiming to address the electorate’s concerns and aspirations. The shifts in voter preferences signal a critical juncture in South Africa’s political dynamics, emphasizing the need for effective, responsive, and inclusive governance.


By Proff

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