South African football fans have seen this movie before. On paper, Bafana Bafana are stronger. On the table, a draw is enough. Yet, as South Africa prepare to face Zimbabwe in their final Group B match of the 2025 TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations in Marrakesh, there is a growing sense that this is exactly the kind of fixture where confidence can turn into anxiety.
For all the talk of progression and permutations, this is not a comfortable match for South Africa. It never is. Zimbabwe have built a reputation for dragging Bafana into trench warfare, stripping games of rhythm and forcing mistakes under pressure.
History Suggests This Will Not Be Straightforward
Although this will be the first time South Africa and Zimbabwe meet at the AFCON finals, the rivalry is well established. The sides have met 19 times, with South Africa holding a narrow edge: eight wins to Zimbabwe’s six, with five draws.
However, recent history should unsettle South African supporters. On 10 October 2025, Bafana were held to a frustrating 0–0 draw by the Warriors in a 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier at Moses Mabhida Stadium. South Africa dominated possession, created chances, and still walked away with nothing. Well, almost nothing.
That result delayed World Cup qualification and reinforced a hard truth: Zimbabwe know how to disrupt South Africa’s plans, especially when the stakes are high.
Pressure Is Squarely On Bafana Bafana
Group B leaves no room for comfort. Egypt sealed top spot after beating both Zimbabwe and South Africa, including the controversial 1–0 victory over Bafana on 26 December 2025. Mohamed Salah’s penalty ensured the Pharaohs’ qualification and pushed South Africa into a position where caution could be costly.
Zimbabwe, meanwhile, sit on one point after losing 2–1 to Egypt on 22 December and drawing 1–1 with Angola on 27 December. They must win to stay alive. That desperation makes them dangerous.
South Africa, by contrast, arrive burdened by expectation. A draw is enough, but AFCON history consistently punishes teams that play not to lose.
Matchday Three Has Favoured Zimbabwe Before
Zimbabwe’s AFCON story is unusual but revealing. All their victories at the finals have come on matchday three — against Algeria in 2004, Ghana in 2006, and Guinea in 2021. They have never won either of their opening two group matches at AFCON.
That trend matters. According to CAF data, Zimbabwe have won three of their five final group matches at AFCON.
South Africa’s record tells a more worrying story. Bafana have not won their final group match at AFCON since 2002. In their last seven tournaments, they are winless on matchday three, with four draws and three defeats. That psychological baggage cannot be ignored.
Knowledge Musona Remains A Familiar Threat
South African fans know Knowledge Musona well. Now 35, the former Kaizer Chiefs attacker continues to lead Zimbabwe with intelligence and composure. His goal against Angola made him Zimbabwe’s oldest goalscorer at the AFCON finals and placed him alongside the late Peter Ndlovu as one of the Warriors’ most effective scorers at the tournament.
Musona’s threat is not just statistical. Against Angola, he attempted five shots, underlining his willingness to take responsibility. Another goal against South Africa would see him move clear as the leading scorer in this fixture, ahead of Shaun Bartlett and Ndlovu.
Experience still counts in tournament football, especially in tense, low-margin matches.
South Africa’s Control Has Lacked Cutting Edge
There have been positives for Bafana. Against Egypt, South Africa recorded 63.8% possession, their highest at AFCON since 2013. Teboho Mokoena completed 72 passes at 90% accuracy, while Aubrey Modiba registered more touches than any other player on the pitch.
Yet control has not translated into goals. South Africa have failed to score in their final group match at the last two AFCON tournaments. They have also won just one of their last five AFCON matches in open play.
As Daily Maverick reports, coach Hugo Broos admitted his frustration after the Egypt defeat and urged his players to move on quickly. Still, emotional residue in tournament football is hard to erase.
Teenage Hadebe’s Absence Changes, But Does Not Break, Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe will be without Teenage Hadebe, ruled out on 29 December 2025 after picking up an injury against Angola. According to The Herald, the former Kaizer Chiefs defender described the setback as “heartbreaking”.
On the surface, this appears to tilt the balance in South Africa’s favour. Yet Zimbabwe have already shown an ability to reorganise defensively. Veteran goalkeeper Washington Arubi continues to deliver commanding performances, frustrating forwards and calming those around him.
If anything, adversity may harden Zimbabwe’s resolve rather than weaken it.
Why Bafana Should Be Genuinely Concerned
This is not a match South Africa can manage passively. Zimbabwe arrive with nothing to lose and everything to gain. South Africa arrive knowing that one lapse of concentration could drag them into a scenario where qualification slips from their own hands.
If Zimbabwe score first, anxiety will creep in. If the match remains goalless deep into the second half, pressure will suffocate Bafana’s rhythm. These are the moments where AFCON careers and campaigns are defined.
That is why South Africa should be worried. Not because Zimbabwe are favourites — but because this is the exact environment where underdogs thrive and expectations crumble.